Why Will 2016 Be A Scorcher?

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A new global temperature forecast from the UK’s Met Office says that 2016 is likely to be even warmer than 2015.

This year has already been provisionally declared the warmest on record all due to a combination of global warming and a particularly strong El Nino.

El Nino is a naturally occurring weather pattern causes extremes such as scorching weather, droughts and flooding around the world. The weather episode sees the warm waters of the central Pacific expand eastwards towards North and South America – pulling colder water from the deep ocean and into the eastern Pacific.

Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west due to rotation of the Earth. This causes water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
In an El Nino, the winds that push the water get weaker, causing the warmer water to shift back towards the east. This then causes the east Pacific to get warmer.

Ocean temperature is linked to wind currents, so this change is temperature causes winds to grow weaker, and therefore the oceans grow warmer and warmer, meaning the El Nino grows too.

The phenomenon happens every two to seven years, usually peaking late in the calendar year, although the effects can persist well into the following spring – and it definitely will be in 2016.

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El Nino usually just causes global temperatures to increase more than normal, however this year has seen active hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and in South East Asia, El Nino has been associated with a drought which helped increase wildfires in Indonesia and caused a dense haze in parts of the country. El Niño is also believed to have played a role in reducing the impact of this year’s monsoon in India. 

Enhanced rainfall is expected between October and December in East Africa too.

The Met Office think that 2016 could see temperatures to rise 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, however last week in Paris, countries agreed that the world should pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5C.

 

Photos by: Wikipedia,  NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

How Mobile Technology Is Improving Global Disaster Relief

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When a war or natural disaster causes disaster around the world and tons of people are displaced or forced to become homeless, communications and power infrastructures are quite often too badly damaged or non-existent.

Dispensing food, finding shelter and administering medical aid is made even harder for aid agencies and non-governmental organisations  without proper communications, and people are frantic to let their loved ones know they’re safe and to find out what’s going on.

In order to help solve the communication problem, telecoms companies have been helpfully engaging in larger-scale communications projects in disaster areas around the world.

Mobile Phones

For example, Vodafone Foundation, have created “instant network mini”, an 11kg backpack containing a 2G mobile network that can offer a coverage radius of up to 1km, a six-hour battery and a small solar panel. The instant network mini kit was deployed in the Kathmandu valley, Nepal, with the hope it would help restore communications following the earthquake there earlier this year. Larger versions of its instant network kits have been used in South Sudan and the Philippines.

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Crisis Apps

A number of organisations, such as Google and Medecins du Monde, are currently working on mobile phone apps that have the power to act as single information points, connecting doctors in developed countries with health workers in the field, or with other aid agencies, so each can know what the other is providing.

Flowminder, a Swedish company, use data from mobile operators to track the movements of populations – or their mobile phones – in disaster situations, which can help governments and aid agencies understand people’s behaviour and give them a better idea of where to dispense and channel resources.

Unfortunately technology alone cannot prevent the suffering following natural and man-made disasters, however its better use can at least improve the response of governments and aid agencies.

 

Photos by: BBC, Center for Neighborhood Technology.

Why Are Ethiopian Women Having Fewer Children?

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It is estimated that by 2050 the population of Africa is said to be twice as big as it was in 2008, which could lead to more conflict over limited resources and greater strains on infrastructure.

But the continent’s second-most populated country, Ethiopia, has managed to slow its population growth right down over the last 20 years, with the biggest impact being felt in the capital, Addis Ababa, where the fertility rate is estimated to be 1.7 – lower than the rate needed to keep the population steady. Addis Ababa is now one of the very few African cities where, on average, women have fewer than two children, something exceptionally rare in Africa.

So Ethiopia has seen a massive cut in its fertility rate, from an average of seven children per woman in the 1990s to 4.6 currently, but how has it managed this?

Experts say the country has made this turnaround because of a combination of factors.

Economy

Ethiopia’s economy is among the fastest growing in the world, and as the quality of life improves, people tend to have fewer children. Women are staying in school for a lot longer, the standard of living in the country is increasing, and most significantly, family planning is becoming a lot more popular.

Pressure on limited resources is easing, as the population continues to slow, which the Ethiopians see as a good thing, as they will see a heavy decrease in poverty.

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Contraception

There has also been a big leap in contraception use between 2000 and 2011, and this is largely attributed to health extension workers who visit the city and its rural areas teaching women about family planning. This was also helped by an increase in the number of girls going to school over the same period.

Safer Births

Giving birth in many African countries also has major risks, many women die in childbirth and early marriage, female genital mutilation, and underdeveloped healthcare infrastructure contribute to the dangers women face when giving birth.

Education

More educated women and a higher cost of living often mean fertility rates are lower in urban areas. People just can’t afford to have as many children, although some may think they never could afford to in the first place.

Photos by: DFID.