On the day of the Syrian air strike vote, the question on everyones lips is how likely is it that we are going to be bombing Syria tomorrow?
In the past, Cameron said that he would not hold another vote to take military action in Syria until he was “sure” that the vote would successfully pass through parliament.
This is mostly due to his humiliating defeat in 2013 when he was defeated in the commons when putting through a bill which would allow Britain to bomb Syria, targeting pro-Assad forces.
Cameron now thinks that he will have enough support for action in Syria. This was made more likely by Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to give his MPs a free vote on the issue, meaning that many Labour MPs may support air strikes in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2F6oSwFx28
Parties that have come out against air strikes and will likely vote against are the SNP, Plaid Cmryu, The Green Party and UKIP.
Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn has advised his MPs to vote against air strikes, but many may defy this advice and vote in favour of the strikes.
Also some Conservative rebels have come out against the decision. The Conservative party line is to vote in favour of air strikes. The Liberal Democrats have also indicated they would vote in favour of air strikes.
So how seats are needed to swing it either way?
- 640 MPs will be voting
- The government need half, plus one, of them to secure a majority
- At least 50 of the 231 Labour MPs are thought to vote in favour
- This would ensure a government victory
So really, it comes down to those Labour MPs. Being the second largest party in parliament, if they along with the SNP, Green Party, UKIP and rebel Tory MPs vote against the strikes, the authorisation won’t go through. Whether Corbyn can convince enough of his MPs to take his stance on the issue will be the defining factor.
Photos by:Iain A Wanless, Guardian and BBC News.