A new global temperature forecast from the UK’s Met Office says that 2016 is likely to be even warmer than 2015.
This year has already been provisionally declared the warmest on record all due to a combination of global warming and a particularly strong El Nino.
El Nino is a naturally occurring weather pattern causes extremes such as scorching weather, droughts and flooding around the world. The weather episode sees the warm waters of the central Pacific expand eastwards towards North and South America – pulling colder water from the deep ocean and into the eastern Pacific.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west due to rotation of the Earth. This causes water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
In an El Nino, the winds that push the water get weaker, causing the warmer water to shift back towards the east. This then causes the east Pacific to get warmer.
Ocean temperature is linked to wind currents, so this change is temperature causes winds to grow weaker, and therefore the oceans grow warmer and warmer, meaning the El Nino grows too.
The phenomenon happens every two to seven years, usually peaking late in the calendar year, although the effects can persist well into the following spring – and it definitely will be in 2016.
El Nino usually just causes global temperatures to increase more than normal, however this year has seen active hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and in South East Asia, El Nino has been associated with a drought which helped increase wildfires in Indonesia and caused a dense haze in parts of the country. El Niño is also believed to have played a role in reducing the impact of this year’s monsoon in India.
Enhanced rainfall is expected between October and December in East Africa too.
The Met Office think that 2016 could see temperatures to rise 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, however last week in Paris, countries agreed that the world should pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5C.
Photos by: Wikipedia, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.